US election

The US Election is Still Dominating The Media

The US election is still dominating the media cycle and despite the uncertainty, markets are up. Even with a Biden victory, it appears the govt will be very much divided hindering moves to raise corp taxes and regulate the tech sector. On top of that, Fed reiterates it’s view that more stimulus is required to offset Covid impact.

BTC is relentless with FOMO exponentially rising with the price. This probably includes both institutions and retail (a stronger narrative than ‘17). Market is shrugging off 1) China miner migration, 2) Huobi C-level investigations, 3) $1b worth of Silk Road BTC seizure (overhang).

With a strong break above 14k resistance, there was no question 16k was in play. Assuming macro sentiments don’t reverse, I can’t imagine anyone wants to sell until we reach new ATHs. It’s now really a waiting game of when whales want to squeeze. Market is 75% long + OI is creeping back up to $6b. The caveats here are 1) BitMEX KYC discourages manipulative activity, 2) OKEX withdrawals still on hold; i.e. a coordinated dump is not as easy as it was back in ‘17.

In HK, crypto companies are furious, to say the least, about the SFC’s intention to ban retail from crypto trading. Worst-case scenario is everything requires a license EXCEPT non-custodial wallets and maybe non-custodial P2P exchanges. It’s also a massive overreach considering global consensus says BTC is NOT a security. It’s still early days, so we’re still optimistic of a less extreme outcome. Crypto lawyers licking their chops..

In Other News

  • Biden reveals SBF donated $5m to campaign
  • ETH 2.0 now open for staking
  • Outsiders fork KP3R
  • Tron blockchain attacked during upgrade