Dogecoin to the moon! Despite a little more volatility the past week, BTCUSD is still stuck in this sideways wedge. Historical vol is now at just 30% levels, which doesn’t look sustainable. From the chart alone, it looks like we are in for a big move in the following week ahead.
We’re leaning towards the downside for a couple of reasons.
- Re-emergence of new Covid cases
- Even larger decreases in volume
The debate is still open to whether an economic crisis is beneficial for BTC. Our take is the majority of investors believe crypto, as a whole, is high risk.
Volume has been pretty abysmal since the halving and we see another -ve narrative with BitMex possibly implementing mandatory KYC. The reason this hurts overall volume is risk limitations. The exchange implements a system that requires a higher margin % as position size increases. Thus, high volume traders would use multiple accounts to, in a way, “cheat the system”. This will be much more difficult when they implement “1 KYC, 1 account”.
So how does “Alt Season” fit into all this? BTC dominance has obviously fallen with the DeFi bull run and some irrational pumps of certain coins. The best example is DOGE that went to the moon as TikTok-ers try to push the price to $1. To say the least, these strategies don’t look very promising and the alt run is likely to end sooner rather than later.
Will end today’s note with a warning for OTC traders that deal with stablecoins. Both Tether and CENTRE are now freezing/blacklisting addresses. So do your due diligence on counterparties and make sure this doesn’t happen to you. Know Your Transactions!
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