Bull market

The bull market has faced it’s first real test

The bull market has faced it’s first real test as we saw $1.9b in liquidations yesterday on a ~10% downward move for BTCUSD. Got a ton of questions on whether to take profit and this was my general answer:

  • Zoom out a bit for perspective; MTD +25%, QTD +70%.
  • Who’s been buying recently? Look at the rallies for names like XRP, ADA, XVG, and etc.
  • Has the big picture narrative changed in any way?

Before the dump, it looked like average joes were going to CMC front-page and buying the “cheapest” names (with no perception of market cap nor of the fundamentals). The problem is that this is the perfect definition of “weak hands”; buying with limited understanding.  We were due for a shakeout and honestly with the liquidations, I’m surprised we stopped at -10%.

With Thanksgiving in play, we can’t be sure the bleeding is over just yet. Would like to see an uptick in OI before making any moves. Eyeing 15,700 for next entry.

During the sell-off, there was also significant damage done on Compound. The platform oracle looks to Coinbase for DAI pricing; and this figure shot up to $1.3 momentarily (from experience, the orderbook is generally thin). Those who borrowed DAI suddenly didn’t have “sufficient” collateral and were liquidated. One wallet suffered a loss of nearly $50m, which hints it may have been a calculated attack.

Exploits much worse than the above example are becoming daily news in the DeFi space. There was no mercy against Pickle’s DAI jar when the attacker drained 99% of funds (worth ~$20m). Issue lies in the code and shows audits are pretty meaningless. So what is 30% APY worth to you when the probability of -100% is non-zero?

In effort to solve this, platforms are coming together (literally). Yearn announced its mergers with Pickle and Cream + an upcoming product, StableCredit. The post hints at integration with AMMs and the obvious partner looks to be Sushiswap. Another candidate would be Andre’s side project, Deriswap, which is like Uniswap but includes derivatives like options and loans.  

In Other News:

  • OKEX withdrawals are back
  • Interest spikes for Grayscale BCH and LTC products
  • ETH 2.0 deposit contract surpasses target; launch set for Dec 1
  • Coinbase is trending but faces outages

Peter Thiel and Alan Howard

创投名人 Peter Thiel、Alan Howard 参与 BitDAO 2.3亿美元集资

去中心化代币平台 BitDAO,最近成功集资2.3亿美元,云集多名传奇科技投资者与风险创投机构。该轮2.3亿美元的私人代币配售集资,由 PayPal 联合创办人 Peter Thiel、旗下 Founders Fund、Pantera Capital、以及 Dragonfly Capital 牵头进行;他们在 BitDAO 开发初期都已经投资该项目。