Bitcoin Convid

Markets rejoiced this week on the news of a COVID vaccine

Markets rejoiced this week on the news of a COVID vaccine from Pfizer. Interesting to see BTC initially correct (along with XAU) but once again we’re seeing BTC outperform. Honestly, there’s not a lot of data at these levels and any comments on support/resistance is a stretch. As mentioned in my previous comments, the narrative is stronger than ‘17 and mid-term LONG is the right play here.

It was amateur hour all over again with the Infura outage; and revealed major exchanges aren’t actually running full nodes. Binance and Bithumb were some of the bigger names that had to halt withdrawals, which is a little embarrassing given the amount of ETH and ERC20 that flows through these platforms on a daily basis. Key takeaways are 1) if you run a full node, make sure it’s up to date, 2) if you use Metamask or MEW, learn how to change the RPC URL. Here’s a list for reference:


It’s been a couple of months since DeFi yields have normalized and many have turned back to leaving assets with centralized platforms like Blockfi and Celsius. But Cred’s recent bankruptcy should be a wake-up call to do equally as much due diligence on CeFi. 


For a platform to survive while paying depositors decent interest rates, it’s obvious that revenue needs to come from even higher-yielding loans; and I don’t need to point out high yield always = high risk. In Cred’s case, they gave capital to a shady quant fund (that disappeared) and relied on microloans in China. The problem with CeFi is it’s rarely going to be transparent and I’d bet less than 1% of depositors knew of the risks. 


Don’t get me wrong; DeFi continues to have it’s fair share of screw-ups. But at least it’s on-chain and we can see how we’re getting screwed. This week’s highlights:

  • Percent Finance: ~$1m worth of coins are stuck in a smart contract due to a coding error.
  • Akropolis: Exploited via flash loans. Damage ~2m DAI.


The UNI community call just ended and it seems clear rewards will stop on the 17th. This is obviously bad for aggregators too that rely partially on UNI rewards. Couple of trade ideas floating around:

  • Tons of ETH locked in Uniswap for rewards. Farmers will unwind, thus SHORT ETH.
  • Relief of constant sell pressure on UNI, while DeFi coins are performing quite well in Nov (look at AAVE), thus LONG UNI.


Not so convinced of #1 given 1) I’m LONG BTC and expect +ve correlation, 2) ETH 2.0 narrative presents too much upside risk.

In Other News:

  • BCH hardfork on the 15th
  • Ripple buys back $46m worth of XRP
  • LiquidStake offers USDC loans for staking in ETH 2.0